Resolution-rule trap cards

The short version:Traders give Yes about 78% on “Another Fed rate hike in 2026”. It rose 3 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting at about 93%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut after the October 2026 meeting at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike after the October 2026 meeting at about 7%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a Fed rate hike of half a point or more after the October 2026 meeting at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a Fed rate cut of half a point or more after the October 2026 meeting at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026”. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 95% on “Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026”. It rose 12 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 1% on “Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026”. It dipped 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 88% on “Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026”. It rose 24 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike after the December 2026 meeting at about 75%. It dipped 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 68% on “Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026”. It rose 39 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a Fed rate hike of half a point or more after the December 2026 meeting at about 3%. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 93% on “Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026”. It rose 11 points today, and buy orders and sell orders waiting near the price are about even right now. Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut after the January 2027 meeting at about 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 4% on “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026”. It rose 1 point today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but announcements alone do not count.

The short version:Traders put the chance of OpenAI's IPO valuation being between $1.25T and $1.5T at about 18%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 7% on “Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act”. It dipped 0.9 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 21% on “Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)”. It dipped 3 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting at about 93%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike after the December 2026 meeting at about 75%. It dipped 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it.

The short version:There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available. Medium surprise risk: the BLS’s first published number settles it, and later revisions do not count, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available. High surprise risk: the National Hurricane Center settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available. Medium surprise risk: the BLS’s first published number settles it, and later revisions do not count, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.