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Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov

The short version

How to read this page

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s 2:00 PM ET announcement on Oct 28 settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

No live order bookRule note: the announcement countsSettled by .gov source: federalreserve.gov
Chance the crowd gives Yes
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no live price
Buyers vs sellers near the price
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no order book read
Fine-print risk
Medium (45/100)
Announced
  • Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Sep 17, 2026 (time zone not stated). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

.gov source: federalreserve.gov
Fine-print risk: Medium (45/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 45
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Federal Reserve Board / FOMC · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Sep 17, 2026 unspecified
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…duled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated rule for a delayed release (e.g. a government shutdown) or for later revisions to the figure.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver