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Resolution-rule trap cards

A 5-point rule check for every tracked contract: who settles it, the deadline and time zone, what counts as Yes, backup rules, and where a same-name contract on another venue settles differently, plus buyers vs sellers near the price. The venue’s live rules always control.

All Cards (1000)High fine-print risk (score 50+) (3)Cross-Venue Diffs (5)Official .gov Sources (24)
Showing 1 to 24 of 1000 cards
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Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensusFine-print risk: High (60/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: only the close counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of NVIDIA being the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026 at about 93%. It rose 27 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. High surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET. As of U.S. regular-session market close (4:00 PM ET on NYSE/Nasdaq; after-hours trades excluded). If the stated date falls on a…
  3. 3. What counts as YesMarket-Close Snapshot
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: Polymarket specifies only "consensus of credible reporting" without naming Bloomberg, Yahoo F…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensusFine-print risk: High (60/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: only the close counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Microsoft being the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. High surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET. As of U.S. regular-session market close (4:00 PM ET on NYSE/Nasdaq; after-hours trades excluded). If the stated date falls on a…
  3. 3. What counts as YesMarket-Close Snapshot
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: Polymarket specifies only "consensus of credible reporting" without naming Bloomberg, Yahoo F…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours…
Full 5-point rule check →
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensusFine-print risk: Medium (45/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (75%)Rule note: needs formal signing
The short version:Traders give Yes about 41% on “Netanyahu out by end of 2026”. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesEffective
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposa…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymark…
Full 5-point rule check →
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensusFine-print risk: Medium (45/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (80%)Rule note: needs formal signing
The short version:Traders give Yes about 75% on “Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31”. It rose 3 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (date from market title) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesEffective
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposa…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymark…
Full 5-point rule check →
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensusFine-print risk: Medium (45/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (67%)Rule note: needs formal signing
The short version:Traders give Yes about 6% on “Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026”. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesEffective
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposa…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymark…
Full 5-point rule check →
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Polymarket

.gov source: federalreserve.govFine-print risk: Medium (45/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (73%)Rule note: the announcement counts
The short version:Traders give Yes about 78% on “Another Fed rate hike in 2026”. It rose 3 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Federal Reserve Board / FOMC
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneThu, Sep 17, 2026 [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesAnnounced
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated rule for a delayed release (e.g. a government shutdown) or for later revisions to t…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a rev…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of XRP reaching $4.00 in October at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance XRP/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (69%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 in October at about 2%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (80%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $97,500 in October at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (77%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $87,500 in October at about 5%. It dipped 3 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (59%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders give Yes about 5% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October”. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle)). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. K…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (67%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders give Yes about 2% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October”. It dipped 0.9 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle)). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. K…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (59%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders give Yes about 46% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October”. It rose 4 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle)). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. K…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: About even (46% buyers)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders give Yes about 16% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and buy orders and sell orders waiting near the price are about even right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle)). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. K…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (87%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $105,000 in October at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (89%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in October at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (69%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $92,500 in October at about 2%. It dipped 0.6 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $95,000 in October at about 1%. It dipped 0.6 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (73%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle)). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. K…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (65%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders give Yes about 33% on “Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in October”. It fell 21 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle)). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. K…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (100%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $4,500 in October at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (91%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $102,500 in October at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
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Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (69%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders give Yes about 2% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October”. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle)). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. K…
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Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October”. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneSun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle)). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. K…
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