Resolution-rule trap cards

A 5-point rule check for every tracked contract: who settles it, the deadline and time zone, what counts as Yes, backup rules, and where a same-name contract on another venue settles differently, plus buyers vs sellers near the price. The venue’s live rules always control.

All Cards (1000)High fine-print risk (score 50+) (3)Cross-Venue Diffs (5)Official .gov Sources (24)

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Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensusFine-print risk: High (60/100)

Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: only the close counts

The short version:Traders put the chance of NVIDIA being the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026 at about 92%. It rose 23 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. High surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)
2. Deadline and time zoneSat, Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET. As of U.S. regular-session market close (4:00 PM ET on NYSE/Nasdaq; after-hours trades excluded). If the stated date falls on a…
3. What counts as YesMarket-Close Snapshot
4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: Polymarket specifies only "consensus of credible reporting" without naming Bloomberg, Yahoo F…
5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours…

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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensusFine-print risk: High (60/100)

Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: only the close counts

The short version:Traders put the chance of Microsoft being the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31 at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. High surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)
2. Deadline and time zoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET. As of U.S. regular-session market close (4:00 PM ET on NYSE/Nasdaq; after-hours trades excluded). If the stated date falls on a…
3. What counts as YesMarket-Close Snapshot
4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: Polymarket specifies only "consensus of credible reporting" without naming Bloomberg, Yahoo F…
5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours…

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Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: nhc.noaa.govFine-print risk: High (55/100)

No live order bookRule note: observed event

The short version:There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available. High surprise risk: the National Hurricane Center settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

1. Who settles it (official source)NOAA National Hurricane Center advisories
2. Deadline and time zoneDecember 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Market page timeline shows Dec 31, 00:00 UTC. [America/New_York]
3. What counts as YesObserved Event
4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)Polymarket: initial qualifying advisory controls even if later retracted; post-season reanalysis only counts if it ADDS a qualifying event. Atlantic season off…
5. Fine print and other venuesTwo traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy; (2) advisory vs. post-season TCR: a storm…

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