Resolution-rule trap cards

A 5-point rule check for every tracked contract: who settles it, the deadline and time zone, what counts as Yes, backup rules, and where a same-name contract on another venue settles differently, plus buyers vs sellers near the price. The venue’s live rules always control.

All Cards (1000)High fine-print risk (score 50+) (3)Cross-Venue Diffs (5)Official .gov Sources (24)

These cards carry both Polymarket and Kalshi rules for the same event. Diff them clause by clause with fee-adjusted spreads.

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Showing 1 to 5 of 5 cards

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Fed interest-rate decision: October 27 to 28, 2026 FOMC meeting

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: federalreserve.govFine-print risk: Low (20/100)

Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (69%)Rule note: the announcement counts

The short version:Traders put the chance of no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting at about 93%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it.

1. Who settles it (official source)FOMC post-meeting statement (Federal Reserve Board)
2. Deadline and time zoneFOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026; Polymarket market page displays endDate 2026-10-29T03:59:00Z (11:59 PM ET Oct 28). [Ame…
3. What counts as YesAnnounced
4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)Polymarket: no statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting → resolves "No change". Changes not shown in the options are rounded UP to the nearest 2…
5. Fine print and other venuesPolymarket measures the CHANGE in the UPPER BOUND vs. the pre-meeting level, with round-up-to-25 bps; Kalshi strikes may reference the target level/range direc…

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Fed interest-rate decision: December 8 to 9, 2026 FOMC meeting (with SEP)

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: federalreserve.govFine-print risk: Low (20/100)

Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (82%)Rule note: the announcement counts

The short version:Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike after the December 2026 meeting at about 75%. It dipped 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it.

1. Who settles it (official source)FOMC post-meeting statement (Federal Reserve Board)
2. Deadline and time zoneFOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, December 9, 2026 (with Summary of Economic Projections; press conference at 2:30 PM ET). [America/New_Yor…
3. What counts as YesAnnounced
4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)Polymarket: no statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting → "No change". Note the baseline is the level immediately prior to the December meeting,…
5. Fine print and other venuesCommon trap: traders treat "Fed cuts in December" (change vs. pre-meeting level) and "Fed funds upper bound at or below X after December" (level) as the same c…

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U.S. CPI inflation: BLS Consumer Price Index release (12-month vs. MoM rules)

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: bls.govFine-print risk: Medium (35/100)

No live order bookRule note: first number counts, no revisions

The short version:There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available. Medium surprise risk: the BLS’s first published number settles it, and later revisions do not count, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

1. Who settles it (official source)BLS Consumer Price Index news release (CPI-U)
2. Deadline and time zoneReleased at 8:30 AM ET on the scheduled monthly BLS CPI release date (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). [America/New_York]
3. What counts as YesPreliminary Print
4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If a CPI report is delayed by a federal funding lapse, Kalshi contracts wait for the official BLS publication up to the contract expiration date; Polymarket an…
5. Fine print and other venuesThree frequent traps: (1) YoY vs. MoM: Kalshi KXCPIYOY is 12-month unadjusted YoY, while many Polymarket monthly brackets track seasonally adjusted MoM; (2) St…

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Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: nhc.noaa.govFine-print risk: High (55/100)

No live order bookRule note: observed event

The short version:There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available. High surprise risk: the National Hurricane Center settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

1. Who settles it (official source)NOAA National Hurricane Center advisories
2. Deadline and time zoneDecember 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Market page timeline shows Dec 31, 00:00 UTC. [America/New_York]
3. What counts as YesObserved Event
4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)Polymarket: initial qualifying advisory controls even if later retracted; post-season reanalysis only counts if it ADDS a qualifying event. Atlantic season off…
5. Fine print and other venuesTwo traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy; (2) advisory vs. post-season TCR: a storm…

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BLS Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls & U-3 Unemployment Rate

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: bls.govFine-print risk: Medium (30/100)

No live order bookRule note: first number counts, no revisions

1. Who settles it (official source)BLS Employment Situation news release
2. Deadline and time zoneReleased at 8:30 AM ET on the first Friday of the month per the BLS schedule (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm). [America/New_York]
3. What counts as YesPreliminary Print
4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)If a federal appropriations lapse delays the BLS Employment Situation release, settlement waits for the official BLS release up to the contract fallback cutoff…
5. Fine print and other venuesBracket-edge trap: "above 150k" (strict) vs. "150k or more" (inclusive), so a print of exactly 150k settles differently. Also verify both venues use the season…

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