Why did this market move?

Top Polymarket markets by 24h volume, attributed against the official source named in each contract. Refreshes every 60s.

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Top markets · livelast poll 36m ago

#	Market	YES / A	NO / B	15m (points)	Today (points)	Vol 24h	Spread	Depth ±5¢	Source
3	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? rules (polymarket.com intl) ↗rule card Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (69%)Rule note: the announcement counts Yes 93% (-1.5 points today) · more sellers (69%) near the price · Announcement settles it	93.0¢	7.0¢	+0.2	-1.5	$4.62M	0.1¢	$224.2k/$509.4k	federalreserve.gov
11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? rules (polymarket.com intl) ↗rule card Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (67%)Rule note: the announcement counts Yes 7% (+1.0 points today) · more sellers (67%) near the price · Announcement settles it	6.5¢	93.5¢	+0.0	+1.0	$1.64M	1.0¢	$17.5k/$35.9k	federalreserve.gov
13	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? rules (polymarket.com intl) ↗rule card Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (100%)Rule note: the announcement counts Yes <1% (-0.1 points today) · more sellers (100%) near the price · Announcement settles it	0.1¢	100.0¢	+0.0	-0.1	$1.45M	0.1¢	$0/$1.3k	federalreserve.gov

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Catalyst stream

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?4h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved -0.1 points in 15m (91.5¢ → 91.5¢); last-hour volume 3.0× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.2¢; depth ±5¢ $214.8k bid / $444.4k ask.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?4h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 13.9× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $0 bid / $1.4k ask.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?4h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (91.5¢ → 91.5¢); last-hour volume 3.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $370.5k bid / $469.4k ask.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?4h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +1.0 points in 15m (7.5¢ → 8.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $18.5k bid / $35.9k ask.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved -0.1 points in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 14.5× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $0 bid / $1.8k ask.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?5h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved -1.0 points in 15m (92.5¢ → 91.5¢); last-hour volume 3.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.3¢; depth ±5¢ $348.1k bid / $644.2k ask.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (7.5¢ → 7.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $27.3k bid / $46.5k ask.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 3.1× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $753 bid / $3.0k ask.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (7.5¢ → 7.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $25.1k bid / $52.2k ask.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?6h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 3.5× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $775 bid / $3.1k ask.

Attribution is mechanical: a release counts as “verified” only if the agency named in the contract published within the move window. It is not a statement about whether a price is right. Buyer and seller balance and rule notes describe public order book and contract data; they are not recommendations.

Official primary-source releases (latest ingested)BLS · Fed · SEC · NHC · Federal Register

nhc.noaa.govThere are no tropical cyclones at this time.11h ago
federalregister.govSelf-Regulatory Organizations; MIAX PEARL, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a Proposed Rule Change To Amend the MIAX Pearl Equities Fee Schedule11h ago
federalregister.govWyoming Regulatory Program11h ago
federalregister.govSunshine Act Meetings11h ago
federalregister.govSenior Executive Service (SES) Performance Review Board; Notice of Membership11h ago
federalregister.govSubmission for OMB Review; Comment Request11h ago
federalregister.govEnhancing the Ability of Consumers To Control the Robocalls11h ago
federalregister.govModernizing the Ability of Consumers To Control Robocalls11h ago
federalregister.govCertain Small Vertical Shaft Engines Between 99cc and up to 225cc, and Parts Thereof From the People's Republic of China: Continuation of Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Orders11h ago
federalregister.govSpace Modernization for the 21st Century11h ago
federalregister.govEstablishment of Class E Airspace; Canton, IL11h ago
federalregister.govCenter for Scientific Review; Notice of Closed Meetings11h ago