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Fed decision in October 2026 (FOMC Oct 27 to 28)?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov · End date Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting at about 93%.

It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: the Fed’s 2:00 PM ET announcement on Oct 28 settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (69%)Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by .gov source: federalreserve.gov
Chance the crowd gives Yes
93% Yes
-0.3 points today · $3.96M traded
Buyers vs sellers near the price
More sellers (69%)
$224.2k from buyers / $509.4k from sellers · gap 0.2¢
Fine-print risk
Low (20/100)
Announced
  • Price and trading: the crowd gives Yes 93% (-0.3 points today, +0.2 points in the last 15 minutes) on $3.96M traded in 24 hours. Within 5¢ of the price there is $224.2k from buyers and $509.4k from sellers.
  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: FOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Polymarket measures the CHANGE in the UPPER BOUND vs. the pre-meeting level, with round-up-to-25 bps.

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellers
Yes price
93.2¢
15 min change (points)
+0.2
Today (points)
-0.3
Traded, 24h
$3.96M
Gap between best prices
0.2¢
-Yes chance
Buyers $224Kgap 0.2¢More sellers (69%)Sellers $509K

Recorded moves

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -0.1 points in 15m (91.5¢ → 91.5¢); last-hour volume 3.0× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.2¢; depth ±5¢ $214.8k bid / $444.4k ask.

    4h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (91.5¢ → 91.5¢); last-hour volume 3.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $370.5k bid / $469.4k ask.

    4h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -1.0 points in 15m (92.5¢ → 91.5¢); last-hour volume 3.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.3¢; depth ±5¢ $348.1k bid / $644.2k ask.

    5h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -0.1 points in 15m (92.5¢ → 92.4¢); last-hour volume 10.0× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.3¢; depth ±5¢ $661.8k bid / $541.4k ask.

    6h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -0.8 points in 15m (93.3¢ → 92.4¢); last-hour volume 10.3× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $714.8k bid / $549.4k ask.

    7h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -0.8 points in 15m (94.3¢ → 93.5¢); last-hour volume 10.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $327.5k bid / $781.5k ask.

    8h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.1 points in 15m (95.0¢ → 95.2¢); last-hour volume 3.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $1732.7k bid / $1264.7k ask.

    11h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (95.0¢ → 95.0¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $1637.7k bid / $1137.2k ask.

    11h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -0.2 points in 15m (95.5¢ → 95.3¢); last-hour volume 3.1× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.2¢; depth ±5¢ $1667.8k bid / $1224.2k ask.

    12h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (94.5¢ → 94.5¢); last-hour volume 4.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $1447.1k bid / $787.7k ask.

    19h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (93.5¢ → 93.5¢); last-hour volume 4.4× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $1442.0k bid / $802.9k ask.

    19h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -1.0 points in 15m (94.5¢ → 93.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $1375.1k bid / $870.4k ask.

    20h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (94.5¢ → 94.5¢); last-hour volume 5.5× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $1459.9k bid / $889.6k ask.

    22h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +1.0 points in 15m (93.5¢ → 94.5¢); last-hour volume 5.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $1457.9k bid / $880.1k ask.

    22h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (93.5¢ → 93.5¢); last-hour volume 4.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $1306.3k bid / $671.2k ask.

    23h ago

Fed interest-rate decision: October 27 to 28, 2026 FOMC meeting

5-point rule check

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: federalreserve.gov
Fine-print risk: Low (20/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 20
1.
Who settles it (official source)
FOMC post-meeting statement (Federal Reserve Board) · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
2.
Deadline and time zone
FOMC statement scheduled for 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 28, 2026; Polymarket market page displays endDate 2026-10-29T03:59:00Z (11:59 PM ET Oct 28). America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedFOMC statement release (not the press conference, minutes, or effective date of the new range).
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
Polymarket: no statement by the end date of the next scheduled meeting → resolves "No change". Changes not shown in the options are rounded UP to the nearest 25 bps. Inter-meeting (unscheduled) moves before Oct 27 change the "prior to the meeting" baseline.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Polymarket measures the CHANGE in the UPPER BOUND vs. the pre-meeting level, with round-up-to-25 bps; Kalshi strikes may reference the target level/range directly. A 12.5 bp or inter-meeting move can settle the two venues differently. Polymarket disputes go to UMA token-holder voting; Kalshi settles under its CFTC-certified contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (Fed Decision in October, event fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537): The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. This market resolves to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change is rounded up to the nearest 25 and resolves to the relevant bracket (for example, a cut or increase of 12.5 bps is considered 25 bps). Resolution source: the FOMC statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28, 2026 (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) and https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market resolves to the "No change" bracket.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXFEDDECISION / KXFED CFTC-certified contracts): Source Agency is the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Settles on the target federal funds rate upper bound (or specified basis-point change bracket) stated in the FOMC post-meeting implementation note and statement for the October 2026 meeting. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi strikes settle on exact CFTC-certified numerical thresholds without rounding a 12.5 bps move up to 25 bps, and disputes are governed by Kalshi Exchange Rules rather than UMA token-holder voting.

Fed decision in October 2026 (FOMC Oct 27 to 28)?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver