October 2026 nonfarm payrolls (BLS Employment Situation)

.gov source: bls.gov · End date Nov 30, 6:59 PM ET

The short version

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

Medium surprise risk: the BLS’s first published number settles it, and later revisions do not count, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by .gov source: bls.gov

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

Preliminary Print

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Bureau of Labor Statistics. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Released at 8:30 AM ET on the first Friday of the month per the BLS schedule (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm). Bracket-edge trap: "above 150k" (strict) vs. "150k or more" (inclusive), so a print of exactly 150k settles differently.

Next official event: Jobs report (Employment Situation), see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

BLS Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls & U-3 Unemployment Rate

5-point rule check

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: bls.gov

Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Medium 30

Who settles it (official source)

BLS Employment Situation news release · https://www.bls.gov/ces/

Deadline and time zone

Released at 8:30 AM ET on the first Friday of the month per the BLS schedule (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm). America/New_York

What counts as Yes

Preliminary PrintFirst-print headline payroll change; the next two monthly revisions and the annual benchmark do not count.

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

If a federal appropriations lapse delays the BLS Employment Situation release, settlement waits for the official BLS release up to the contract fallback cutoff (March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET on Polymarket annual U-3 contracts).

Fine print and other venues

Bracket-edge trap: "above 150k" (strict) vs. "150k or more" (inclusive), so a print of exactly 150k settles differently. Also verify both venues use the seasonally adjusted headline, not private payrolls or the household survey.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (BLS Employment Situation / US Unemployment in 2026, slug will-us-unemployment-reach-at-least-5pt0-in-2026): Resolves on the Monthly Employment Situation Report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm. Unemployment threshold markets use the seasonally adjusted U-3 rate in Table A-15 reported to one decimal place ("greater than or equal to" the listed percentage). Monthly payroll markets use the first-reported seasonally adjusted change in total nonfarm payroll employment (Establishment Survey, Table B-1), excluding subsequent monthly or annual benchmark revisions.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXU3 and KXPAYROLLS CFTC-certified contracts): Source Agency is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Settles on the initial published Employment Situation release for the reference month (seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate or headline total nonfarm payroll change in thousands). Strikes are strict inequalities ("above X") unless otherwise specified on the strike ticket, and later two-month revisions or annual benchmark revisions do not alter settlement.

The short versioniA plain summary built from the live price, the order book and the contract rules, the same for every visitor.

The details

The short version