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Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027

.gov source: nhc.noaa.gov

The short version

How to read this page

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

High surprise risk: the National Hurricane Center settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

No live order bookRule note: observed eventSettled by .gov source: nhc.noaa.gov
Chance the crowd gives Yes
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no live price
Buyers vs sellers near the price
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no order book read
Fine-print risk
High (55/100)
Observed Event
  • Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source: settlement runs on NOAA National Hurricane Center. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Observed Event" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Market page timeline shows Dec 31, 00:00 UTC. Deadline: December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Two traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy.

Next official event: NHC advisory, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027

5-point rule check

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: nhc.noaa.gov
Fine-print risk: High (55/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk High 55
1.
Who settles it (official source)
NOAA National Hurricane Center advisories · https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
2.
Deadline and time zone
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (= January 1, 2027, 04:59 UTC). Market page timeline shows Dec 31, 00:00 UTC. America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Observed EventLandfall at Category 5 intensity as reported in an NHC advisory.
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
Polymarket: initial qualifying advisory controls even if later retracted; post-season reanalysis only counts if it ADDS a qualifying event. Atlantic season officially ends Nov 30 but the window runs to Dec 31.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Two traps: (1) ET vs. UTC: the rules say 11:59 PM ET while the page timeline shows 00:00 UTC, a ~29-hour discrepancy; (2) advisory vs. post-season TCR: a storm can be upgraded or downgraded in reanalysis, so a venue using the TCR can settle differently from one that uses the initial advisory.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (slug will-any-category-5-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027): Category 5 is defined as maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher per NHC Saffir-Simpson definitions (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and landfall occurs when the surface center intersects the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL). Resolves Yes if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane as reported in official NHC advisories between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves based on the initial qualifying NHC advisory regardless of any later retraction or post-season downgrade, while later corrections are counted only if they upgrade a storm into a qualifying Category 5 landfall.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXHURRICANE / hurricane landfall contracts): Source Agency is the NOAA National Hurricane Center. Kalshi contracts specify geographic coastline bounds (including or excluding U.S. territories such as Puerto Rico depending on the series) and settle on official NHC reports published prior to contract expiration, without Polymarket’s asymmetric "initial advisory locks in Yes, post-season upgrade also counts for Yes" rule.

Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall before 2027: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver