Spreads & whales

Where liquidity is thin and where prices moved without an official release. Large orderflow shows up here as unverified moves and volume spikes. MarketWeaver reads public orderbooks only: it does not track or identify individual wallets.

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Moves with no official release3+ points or 3× volume

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?4h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved -0.1 points in 15m (91.5¢ → 91.5¢); last-hour volume 3.0× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.2¢; depth ±5¢ $214.8k bid / $444.4k ask.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?4h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 13.9× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $0 bid / $1.4k ask.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?4h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (91.5¢ → 91.5¢); last-hour volume 3.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $370.5k bid / $469.4k ask.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?4h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +1.0 points in 15m (7.5¢ → 8.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $18.5k bid / $35.9k ask.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved -0.1 points in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 14.5× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $0 bid / $1.8k ask.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?5h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved -1.0 points in 15m (92.5¢ → 91.5¢); last-hour volume 3.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.3¢; depth ±5¢ $348.1k bid / $644.2k ask.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (7.5¢ → 7.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $27.3k bid / $46.5k ask.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 3.1× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $753 bid / $3.0k ask.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?5h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (7.5¢ → 7.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $25.1k bid / $52.2k ask.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?6h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (0.1¢ → 0.1¢); last-hour volume 3.5× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $775 bid / $3.1k ask.

Widest bid-ask spreads

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
1.0¢
YES 6.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
0.2¢
YES 93.2¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
0.1¢
YES 0.1¢

Thinnest books vs. 24h volume

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
vol $1.45M · today -0.1 points
Buyers $0gap 0.1¢More sellers (100%)Sellers $1K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
vol $1.26M · today - points
Buyers $17Kgap 1.0¢More sellers (67%)Sellers $36K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
vol $3.96M · today -0.3 points
Buyers $224Kgap 0.2¢More sellers (69%)Sellers $509K

Spread and depth come from the public Polymarket CLOB orderbook (resting size within 5¢ of the midpoint). Standardized research, not a recommendation.