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U.S. CPI inflation: BLS Consumer Price Index release (12-month vs. MoM rules)

.gov source: bls.gov

The short version

How to read this page

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

Medium surprise risk: the BLS’s first published number settles it, and later revisions do not count, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

No live order bookRule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by .gov source: bls.gov
Chance the crowd gives Yes
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no live price
Buyers vs sellers near the price
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no order book read
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
Preliminary Print
  • Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source: settlement runs on Bureau of Labor Statistics. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Released at 8:30 AM ET on the scheduled monthly BLS CPI release date (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Three frequent traps: (1) YoY vs. MoM: Kalshi KXCPIYOY is 12-month unadjusted YoY, while many Polymarket monthly brackets track seasonally adjusted MoM.

Next official event: CPI release, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

U.S. CPI inflation: BLS Consumer Price Index release (12-month vs. MoM rules)

5-point rule check

Polymarket ↔ Kalshi

.gov source: bls.gov
Fine-print risk: Medium (35/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 35
1.
Who settles it (official source)
BLS Consumer Price Index news release (CPI-U) · https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
2.
Deadline and time zone
Released at 8:30 AM ET on the scheduled monthly BLS CPI release date (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Preliminary PrintInitial monthly BLS CPI news release (first print at one decimal place); subsequent revisions are excluded on both venues.
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If a CPI report is delayed by a federal funding lapse, Kalshi contracts wait for the official BLS publication up to the contract expiration date; Polymarket annual CPI contracts wait until January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET before resolving on already-published data.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Three frequent traps: (1) YoY vs. MoM: Kalshi KXCPIYOY is 12-month unadjusted YoY, while many Polymarket monthly brackets track seasonally adjusted MoM; (2) Strict inequality: Kalshi "> X%" requires at least X + 0.1% at one-decimal precision, whereas Polymarket range brackets include both endpoints; (3) Headline CPI-U vs. Core CPI (less food and energy).
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (U.S. CPI / How high will inflation get in 2026, slug will-inflation-reach-more-than-4pt5-in-2026): Annual threshold markets resolve Yes if headline Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) increases by strictly greater than the listed percent over the 12-month period ending with any month in 2026 per the monthly BLS CPI news release (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), reported to one decimal place (for example, 2.9%). Monthly Polymarket CPI bracket markets key off the seasonally adjusted month-over-month (MoM) or unadjusted year-over-year (YoY) first print as specified in the bracket title. Later revisions to previously released CPI figures do not count once the report is issued.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXCPI / KXCPIYOY CFTC-certified contracts): Source Agency is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. KXCPIYOY settles on the initial published 12-month percent change in Not Seasonally Adjusted CPI-U (All Urban Consumers, U.S. city average, all items) to one decimal place. Strikes use "strictly greater than" thresholds, meaning a print of exactly 3.0% settles NO on a "> 3.0%" strike. Subsequent BLS revisions or seasonal-factor recalculations are excluded.

U.S. CPI inflation: BLS Consumer Price Index release (12-month vs. MoM rules): resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver