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Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus · End date Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders give Yes about 41% on “Netanyahu out by end of 2026”.

There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now.

Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: needs formal signingNo single official source
Fine-print risk
Medium (45/100)
Effective

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Press announcements or committee votes do not settle Yes; formal signing or enactment before the deadline is required. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback.

Source named: Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Official statements + credible-reporting consensus
Fine-print risk: Medium (45/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 45
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Official government/military statements plus a consensus of credible reporting (no single primary feed)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
EffectiveRequires the measure to actually take effect; signing or announcing alone does not count. Rule text: "…"Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official inf…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: if the outcome is unclear at the end date, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle proposal and dispute.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: If a second venue lists the same question, compare its named source, cutoff time and timezone, and fallback; Polymarket disputes go to the UMA Optimistic Oracle while Kalshi follows CFTC-filed contract terms.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver