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Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Source: Credible-reporting consensus

The short version

How to read this page

There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

High surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

No live order bookRule note: only the close countsNo single official source
Chance the crowd gives Yes
-
no live price
Buyers vs sellers near the price
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no order book read
Fine-print risk
High (60/100)
Market-Close Snapshot
  • Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET. Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

This card is not linked to a tracked market.

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Source: Credible-reporting consensus
Fine-print risk: High (60/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk High 60
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider)
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 4:00 PM ET. As of U.S. regular-session market close (4:00 PM ET on NYSE/Nasdaq; after-hours trades excluded). If the stated date falls on a weekend or exchange holiday (e.g. Sat Oct 31, 2026), the last regular trading close prior to that date governs. America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Market-Close SnapshotSettles on the value at the regular-session close on the stated date. Intraday touches before the close and after-hours moves do not count. Rule text: "…st company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: Polymarket specifies only "consensus of credible reporting" without naming Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, CompaniesMarketCap, or SEC diluted vs. basic share counts; if providers disagree in a tight race, resolution goes to a UMA Optimistic Oracle token-holder dispute.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket relies on a "consensus of credible reporting" as of market close (4:00 PM ET regular session, after-hours excluded) and UMA oracle adjudication if share-count methodologies (basic vs. diluted, share classes) conflict. Kalshi's market-cap contracts must name an explicit reference source and expiration time in their CFTC-filed contract terms, so a photo finish can settle differently on each venue.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver