Resolution-rule trap cards

The short version:Traders give Yes about 1% on “Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October”. It dipped 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in October”. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Solana reaching $130 in October at about 3%. It rose 0.7 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $2,900 in October at about 1%. It dipped 0.6 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 3% on “Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in October”. It rose 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Solana reaching $140 in October at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $2,800 in October at about 3%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting at about 93%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut after the October 2026 meeting at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike after the October 2026 meeting at about 7%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a Fed rate hike of half a point or more after the October 2026 meeting at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a Fed rate cut of half a point or more after the October 2026 meeting at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026”. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Kimi Antonelli winning the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix at more than 99%. It rose 56 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Max Verstappen winning the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix at less than 1%. It fell 45 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Charles Leclerc winning the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix at less than 1%. It fell 5 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 2% on “Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026”. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Isack Hadjar winning the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix at less than 1%. It dipped 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 27% on “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31”. It rose 2 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 95% on “Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026”. It rose 12 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 1% on “Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026”. It dipped 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of George Russell winning the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix at less than 1%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 88% on “Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026”. It rose 24 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 4% on “Trump out as President before 2027”. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.