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Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?

Named source: binance.com (1m candle) · End date Nov 1, 12:00 AM ET · Live market: Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $4,500 in October at less than 1%.

It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Rule note: one 1-minute touch countsSettled by binance.com (1m candle)
Fine-print risk
Medium (40/100)
1m Candle High/Low Touch

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored. Updates every minute (exchange candles). No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles Yes if any single 1-minute candle high or low touches the strike price, even if the price reverses right away. Deadline: Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date. Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low).

Source named: binance.com (1m candle) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)
Fine-print risk: Medium (40/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 40
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored · https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT
2.
Deadline and time zone
Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
1m Candle High/Low TouchResolves the moment a single 1-minute candle on Binance ETH/USDT prints a High/Low at or beyond the level, even a brief wick. Prices on other exchanges, pairs or indexes do not count, and it can settle before the end date. Rule text: "This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the t…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is down, or prints an outlier wick, there is no stated backup index and the outcome goes to UMA dispute.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto price contracts (e.g. KXBTC / KXBTCD) settle on a CF Benchmarks index such as the Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), averaged over the 60 seconds before the stated time across multiple spot exchanges. A brief binance.com USDT wick can settle Polymarket YES while Kalshi settles NO.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver