Resolution-rule trap cards

The short version:Traders give Yes about 61% on “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027”. It dipped 3 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Florida Senate race in 2026 at about 10%. It rose 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 3% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026”. It is about flat today, and buy orders and sell orders waiting near the price are about even right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan being the next leader out before 2027 at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Predict.fun launching a token by November 30, 2026 at about 97%. It rose 3 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 15% on “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026”. It dipped 4 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 33% on “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027”. It rose 0.5 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Jamie Dimon winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026 at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Donald Trump winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 2%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Benjamin Netanyahu being the next leader out before 2027 at about 39%. It rose 9 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31”. It dipped 0.7 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 92% on “US imports Russian diesel by December 31”. It rose 7 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 6% on “Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026”. It rose 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 98% on “US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31”. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs confirmed reports from several sources, not a single headline, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Elon Musk winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at less than 1%. It rose 0.5 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Texas Senate race in 2026 at about 34%. It dipped 2 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Chris Van Hollen winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Mitch Landrieu winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Texas Senate race in 2026 at about 67%. It rose 2 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Doug Burgum winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Maine Senate race in 2026 at about 39%. It dipped 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of John N. Kennedy winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.