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Resolution-rule trap cards

A 5-point rule check for every tracked contract: who settles it, the deadline and time zone, what counts as Yes, backup rules, and where a same-name contract on another venue settles differently, plus buyers vs sellers near the price. The venue’s live rules always control.

All Cards (1000)High fine-print risk (score 50+) (4)Cross-Venue Diffs (5)Official .gov Sources (30)
Showing 337 to 360 of 1000 cards
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Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Ted Cruz winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at about 2%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (80%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Michigan Senate race in 2026 at about 69%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $82,000 October 19-25 at less than 1%. It fell 30 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneWindow ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline, date from market title) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (96%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of John McEntee winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneMon, Nov 6, 2028, 7:00 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Elissa Slotkin winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (75%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Florida governor race in 2026 at about 80%. It dipped 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Byron Donalds winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (58%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Maine Senate race in 2026 at about 62%. It rose 2 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (70%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Arizona governor race in 2026 at about 10%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (74%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of J.D. Vance winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at about 38%. It rose 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Andy Beshear winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at about 4%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (98%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Texas governor race in 2026 at about 69%. It rose 3 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (56%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the South Carolina Senate race in 2026 at about 22%. It rose 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $95,000 by December 31, 2026 at about 24%. It dipped 4 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (56%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Kansas Senate race in 2026 at about 39%. It rose 1 point today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (89%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Cory Booker winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (59%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Glenn Youngkin winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (56%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Nevada governor race in 2026 at about 28%. It dipped 4 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (61%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Ron DeSantis winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at about 4%. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (58%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Mississippi Senate race in 2026 at about 14%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (72%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Arizona governor race in 2026 at about 91%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (99%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Georgia Senate race in 2026 at about 96%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (78%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Tim Scott winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (80%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Michigan Senate race in 2026 at about 32%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
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