Resolution-rule trap cards

The short version:Traders put the chance of OpenAI's IPO valuation being between $1.5T and $1.75T at about 19%. It rose 4 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Wes Moore winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Marco Rubio winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 10%. It rose 1 point today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up about 46% and Down about 54% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET”. It dipped 5 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Florida Senate race in 2026 at about 91%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of CoreWeave announcing bankruptcy by December 31, 2028 at about 19%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $3,100 October 19-25 at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of an AI lab announcing another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027 at about 61%. It dipped 4 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1AM ET”. It rose 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up about 32% and Down about 68% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET”. It rose 33 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3AM ET”. It rose 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 4% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026”. It dipped 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Jon Ossoff winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 9%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 13%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 4% on “Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31”. It rose 2 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Up about 74% and Down about 26% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET”. It rose 20 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026 at about 18%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Xi Jinping being the next leader out before 2027 at about 2%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Gretchen Whitmer winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva being the next leader out before 2027 at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 16% on “Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026”. It dipped 3 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 17% on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs confirmed reports from several sources, not a single headline, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1AM ET”. It rose 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.