Resolution-rule trap cards

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Hillary Clinton being arrested before 2027 at about 5%. It rose 4 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Up about 6% and Down about 94% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET”. It fell 13 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Donald Trump Jr. winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Solana dip to $90 October 19-25”. It dipped 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $4,000 by December 31, 2026 at about 7%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up about 96% and Down about 4% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET”. It rose 20 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Mark Kelly winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $2,400 on October 24 at less than 1%. It fell 53 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ilhan Omar being deported by December 31, 2026 at about 3%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 9% on “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: it needs confirmed reports from several sources, not a single headline, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 7% on “Andy Burnham out as UK PM by December 31”. It dipped 0.7 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11PM ET”. It rose 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on October 25”. It dipped 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Delcy Rodríguez being the next leader out before 2027 at about 3%. It rose 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Predict.fun launching a token by December 31, 2026 at about 97%. It rose 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Marco Rubio winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 10%. It rose 1 point today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Wes Moore winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up about 46% and Down about 54% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET”. It dipped 5 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Florida Senate race in 2026 at about 91%. It dipped 0.5 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of CoreWeave announcing bankruptcy by December 31, 2028 at about 19%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.