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Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?

.gov source: sec.gov

The short version

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There is no live price for this market yet, so the crowd’s view is not available.

Medium surprise risk: only the price at the official close counts, not moves during the day, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

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The details

No live order bookRule note: only the close countsSettled by .gov source: sec.gov
Chance the crowd gives Yes
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no live price
Buyers vs sellers near the price
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no order book read
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
Market-Close Snapshot
  • Price and trading: no live Polymarket price or order book is tracked for this contract yet.
  • Official source: settlement runs on Securities and Exchange Commission. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Intraday touches do not count. Only the exact closing snapshot at the cutoff timestamp settles this contract. Deadline: Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Next official event: SEC announcement, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

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Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

.gov source: sec.gov
Fine-print risk: Medium (30/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 30
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Securities and Exchange Commission · https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases
2.
Deadline and time zone
Fri, Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (deadline) America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Market-Close SnapshotSettles on the value at the regular-session close on the stated date. Intraday touches before the close and after-hours moves do not count. Rule text: "…r listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indica…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated rule for a delayed release (e.g. a government shutdown) or for later revisions to the figure.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver