Resolution-rule trap cards

The short version:Traders give Up about 2% and Down about 98% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET”. It fell 44 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026”. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Rahm Emanuel winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Predict.fun launching a token by October 31, 2026 at about 26%. It rose 8 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET”. It rose 49 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 99% on “Will Israel election happen as scheduled”. It rose 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 12% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 33% on “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027”. It dipped 0.5 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ron DeSantis winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 3%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET”. It rose 49 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5PM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Elon Musk winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes more than 99% on “Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31”. It rose 67 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 2% on “New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31”. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 3% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026”. It rose 0.6 points today, and buy orders and sell orders waiting near the price are about even right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET”. It rose 49 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET”. It rose 49 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Gavin Newsom winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 11%. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7PM ET”. It rose 50 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.