Resolution-rule trap cards

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 October 19-25”. It dipped 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET”. It fell 42 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $2,500 on October 26 at less than 1%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5AM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $83,000 on October 26 at less than 1%. It dipped 4 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of OpenAI announcing another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026 at about 13%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11PM ET”. It rose 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 32% on “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1PM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10PM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 6PM ET”. It rose 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $2,400 on October 25 at less than 1%. It fell 40 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes more than 99% on “Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on October 25”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET”. It rose 49 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 17% on “Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31”. It rose 7 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 10% on “Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026”. It dipped 0.9 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of OpenAI announcing bankruptcy by December 31, 2029 at about 20%. It rose 0.5 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 13%. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 72% on “Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs confirmed reports from several sources, not a single headline, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $83,000 on October 24 at less than 1%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 October 19-25”. It dipped 0.7 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1PM ET”. It rose 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 1% on “Will Jesus Christ return before 2027”. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 8% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and buy orders and sell orders waiting near the price are about even right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.