Resolution-rule trap cards

The short version:Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut after the January 2027 meeting at about 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 4% on “Xi Jinping out before 2027”. It rose 0.7 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes more than 99% on “Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 99% on “US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31”. It rose 5 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs confirmed reports from several sources, not a single headline, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET”. It rose 49 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31”. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 19% on “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027”. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 19-25”. It dipped 4 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Elissa Slotkin winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 24”. It dipped 3 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 25”. It fell 10 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up about 12% and Down about 88% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET”. It fell 30 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes more than 99% on “Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31”. It rose 89 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 4% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 25”. It dipped 3 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Michelle Obama winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 7% on “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027”. It rose 1 point today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 19-25”. It dipped 0.8 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $82,000 on October 24 at less than 1%. It fell 10 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.