Resolution-rule trap cards

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 19-25”. It dipped 0.8 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Michelle Obama winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $82,000 on October 24 at less than 1%. It fell 10 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 7% on “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027”. It rose 1 point today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31”. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs confirmed reports from several sources, not a single headline, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 2% on “NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026”. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs confirmed reports from several sources, not a single headline, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 24”. It dipped 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Pete Hegseth winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 26”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Ohio Senate race in 2026 at about 69%. It rose 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 26”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Gretchen Whitmer winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 October 19-25”. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $81,000 on October 26 at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET”. It rose 49 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 4% on “Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027”. It rose 0.5 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 4% on “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026”. It rose 0.6 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but announcements alone do not count.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET”. It rose 49 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of China invade Taiwan by ending of 2026 at about 2%. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 33% on “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027”. It dipped 0.5 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $82,000 on October 25 at less than 1%. It fell 30 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11AM ET”. It rose 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.