Resolution-rule trap cards

The short version:Traders give HC Dynamo Moscow less than 1% and Avangard Omsk more than 99% in “KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Avangard Omsk”. It fell 45 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Lando Norris winning the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix at less than 1%. It dipped 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 10% on “Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027”. It rose 0.5 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $82,500 in October at about 52%. It dipped 1 point today, and buy orders and sell orders waiting near the price are about even right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 4% on “Trump out as President before 2027”. It dipped 0.9 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 98% on “Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled”. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give SKA St. Petersburg less than 1% and CSKA Moscow more than 99% in “KHL: SKA St. Petersburg vs. CSKA Moscow”. It fell 43 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $85,000 in October at about 18%. It dipped 4 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Lada Togliatti less than 1% and HC Sochi more than 99% in “KHL: Lada Togliatti vs. HC Sochi”. It fell 57 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike after the December 2026 meeting at about 75%. It dipped 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 68% on “Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026”. It rose 39 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of a Fed rate hike of half a point or more after the December 2026 meeting at about 3%. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 8% on “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31”. It dipped 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Max Verstappen getting pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix at less than 1%. It fell 42 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Oscar Piastri winning the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix at less than 1%. It dipped 0.9 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Kimi Antonelli getting pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix at more than 99%. It rose 77 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 55% on “Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch”. It dipped 3 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not name an official source.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $2,500 in October at about 36%. It dipped 4 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Charles Leclerc getting pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix at less than 1%. It fell 21 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 93% on “Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026”. It rose 11 points today, and buy orders and sell orders waiting near the price are about even right now. Medium surprise risk: the SEC settles it based on the condition as written, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026”. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs confirmed reports from several sources, not a single headline, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 14% on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: it needs confirmed reports from several sources, not a single headline, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Samuel Alito announcing his retirement by December 31, 2026 at about 22%. It rose 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but the rules do not name an official source.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 3% on “Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026”. It is about flat today, and buy orders and sell orders waiting near the price are about even right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.