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Resolution-rule trap cards

A 5-point rule check for every tracked contract: who settles it, the deadline and time zone, what counts as Yes, backup rules, and where a same-name contract on another venue settles differently, plus buyers vs sellers near the price. The venue’s live rules always control.

All Cards (1000)High fine-print risk (score 50+) (4)Cross-Venue Diffs (5)Official .gov Sources (30)
Showing 361 to 384 of 1000 cards
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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at about 17%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (88%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Mississippi Senate race in 2026 at about 87%. It dipped 0.5 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (80%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Michigan Senate race in 2026 at about 32%. It rose 0.5 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (70%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Nevada governor race in 2026 at about 74%. It rose 5 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (61%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Ron DeSantis winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at about 4%. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

Polymarket

.gov source: federalregister.govFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: needs formal signing
The short version:Traders give Yes about 6% on “Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act”. It rose 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Federal Register / Congress.gov
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneFri, Jan 1, 2027 (deadline) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSigned/Enacted
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for an…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a rev…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

Polymarket

.gov source: federalregister.govFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: needs formal signing
The short version:Traders give Yes about 7% on “Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act”. It dipped 0.9 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Federal Register / Congress.gov
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneFri, Jan 1, 2027 (deadline) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSigned/Enacted
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for an…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a rev…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (59%)Rule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders give Yes about 39% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026”. It dipped 2 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 19-25?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $84,000 October 19-25 at less than 1%. It dipped 3 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneWindow ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline, date from market title) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (83%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Marco Rubio winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at about 18%. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (84%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Ohio governor race in 2026 at about 83%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (93%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Kansas Senate race in 2026 at about 62%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (62%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the South Carolina Senate race in 2026 at about 79%. It rose 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (80%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Iowa Senate race in 2026 at about 59%. It rose 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More buyers (57%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of an independent winning the Nebraska Senate race in 2026 at about 28%. It rose 1 point today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Tom Cotton winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 19-25?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $2,500 October 19-25 at less than 1%. It dipped 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneWindow ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (deadline, date from market title) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (67%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Kamala Harris winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at about 6%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: binance.com (1m candle)Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: one 1-minute touch counts
The short version:Traders give Yes about 24% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026”. It rose 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles (binance.com); other exchanges and pairs ignored
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneThu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (date from market title) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as Yes1m Candle High/Low Touch
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: settlement depends on a single source (binance.com (1m candle)); if that feed or chart is dow…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket resolves on a single exchange source (binance.com (1m candle), 1m candle High/Low). Most Kalshi crypto pri…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (90%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Minnesota Senate race in 2026 at about 14%. It rose 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Polymarket

Named source: Official party sourcesFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of Phil Murphy winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Consensus of official party sources (nomination accepted)
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with null deciding if ambiguous; certified official results c…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (60%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Iowa governor race in 2026 at about 86%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race callsFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (81%)Rule note: seat / electoral certification
The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Minnesota Senate race in 2026 at about 86%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneTue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) [America/New_York]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSeat / Electoral Certification
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on c…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Ven…
Full 5-point rule check →
Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

Polymarket

.gov source: federalregister.govFine-print risk: Low (25/100)
Buyers vs sellers: too little tradingRule note: needs formal signing
The short version:Traders give Yes about 6% on “Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act”. It rose 2 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines.
  1. 1. Who settles it (official source)Federal Register / Congress.gov
  2. 2. Deadline and time zoneFri, Jan 1, 2027 (deadline) [unspecified]
  3. 3. What counts as YesSigned/Enacted
  4. 4. Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for an…
  5. 5. Fine print and other venuesCross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a rev…
Full 5-point rule check →
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Resolution-Rule Cards · MarketWeaver