Resolution-rule trap cards

The short version:Traders give Up more than 99% and Down less than 1% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12AM ET”. It rose 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on October 24”. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Karen Bass winning the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election at about 46%. It dipped 0.5 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Extended launching a token by December 31 2026 at about 97%. It rose 4 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Iran leadership change by October 31”. It is about flat today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on October 26”. It fell 10 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 27% on “Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026”. It rose 0.9 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 4% on “US imports Russian diesel by October 31”. It rose 2 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 October 19-25”. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $2,800 October 19-25 at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Bitcoin reaching $84,000 on October 26 at less than 1%. It dipped 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $3,000 October 19-25 at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 7% on “NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: it needs confirmed reports from several sources, not a single headline, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of James Talarico winning the 2028 US Presidential Election at about 2%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 October 19-25”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 2% on “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027”. It is about flat today, and buy orders and sell orders waiting near the price are about even right now. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ethereum reaching $2,350 on October 26 at less than 1%. It fell 49 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 14% on “Iran leadership change by December 31”. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Xi Jinping being the next leader out before 2027 at about 2%. It rose 1 point today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the named source’s announcement settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.

The short version:Traders give Yes less than 1% on “Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 on October 24”. It dipped 0.9 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away, but a backup rule applies if the event is delayed, canceled or revised.

The short version:Traders give Up less than 1% and Down more than 99% in “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2AM ET”. It fell 50 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Hillary Clinton being arrested before 2027 at about 5%. It rose 4 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Medium surprise risk: the condition as written settles it, but there is no single official source, so it depends on news reports agreeing.