Resolution-rule trap cards

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the North Carolina Senate race in 2026 at about 97%. It rose 0.8 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders give Xingtong Chen about 85% and Margaryta Pesotska about 15% in “WTT Champions: Xingtong Chen vs Margaryta Pesotska”. It rose 35 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 21% on “Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)”. It dipped 3 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the Fed’s announcement settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Vermont governor race in 2026 at about 80%. It rose 4 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of John Thune winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at less than 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Ivanka Trump winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at about 2%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Vermont governor race in 2026 at about 20%. It dipped 4 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of J.B. Pritzker winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at about 1%. There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Massachusetts governor race in 2026 at about 5%. It dipped 0.7 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Raphael Warnock winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at about 2%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Texas governor race in 2026 at about 35%. It rose 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Tennessee governor race in 2026 at about 6%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 10% on “Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026”. It dipped 1 point today, and buy orders and sell orders waiting near the price are about even right now. Low surprise risk: a single 1-minute touch of the price level counts, even if it reverses right away.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Oklahoma governor race in 2026 at about 88%. It dipped 4 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Tennessee governor race in 2026 at about 94%. It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of the Democrats winning the Oklahoma governor race in 2026 at about 12%. It rose 3 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Thomas Massie winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at less than 1%. It is about flat today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders put the chance of Gavin Newsom winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination at about 17%. It rose 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

The short version:Traders give Yes about 5% on “Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31”. It dipped 4 points today, and there are too few orders waiting near the price to compare buy orders and sell orders. Low surprise risk: it needs a formal signing or legal effect, not just headlines.

The short version:Traders give Grizzlies more than 99% and Jazz less than 1% in “Grizzlies vs. Jazz”. It rose 51 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.

The short version:Traders give Timberwolves less than 1% and Cavaliers more than 99% in “Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers”. It fell 40 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.

The short version:Traders give Warriors more than 99% and Nuggets less than 1% in “Warriors vs. Nuggets”. It rose 72 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.

The short version:Traders give Cowboys more than 99% and Eagles less than 1% in “Cowboys vs. Eagles”. It rose 32 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.

The short version:Traders give Wizards less than 1% and Hornets more than 99% in “Wizards vs. Hornets”. It fell 46 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now. Low surprise risk: the official final result settles it, overtime included.