Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls · End date Nov 3, 11:59 PM ET · Live market: Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

Explain it simply

Built from this market’s own rules and prices. It is research, not a recommendation.

1.What this market is really asking

This market asks: will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

There is one market for each possible winner (2 in all).

2.Words to know

Share: One unit of a market. A share pays $1 if its result happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Price in cents (¢): Prices run from 0¢ to 100¢ and work like a percent chance. 94¢ means the crowd gives it about a 94% chance.
Official source: The organization named in the rules whose report decides the result.
Certified result: The final, official vote count approved by election officials. It can come days or weeks after election night.
Settle (resolve): When a market is decided and shares pay out. Venues use “resolve” to mean the same thing.
End date: The last day the rules allow for the result. Some markets settle earlier, and some rules allow extra time.
Polymarket: The prediction market whose prices we show. Its main site is not available to US residents.
Credible reporting: When major news outlets agree on a result. Polymarket often uses this before official counts are final.
ET: Eastern Time, the time zone of New York.

3.Each possible result

the RepublicansCrowd’s chance: about 77%
What it would mean: the Republicans is the winner of the Vermont governor race in 2026.
What has to happen: the Republicans wins, under the rules.
the DemocratsCrowd’s chance: about 23%
What it would mean: the Democrats is the winner of the Vermont governor race in 2026.
What has to happen: the Democrats wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so these chances come from separate prices and may not add up to exactly 100%.

4.How the payout works

In this market, each Yes share pays $1 if the Republicans wins and $0 if not. A No share is the other way around.

At 77¢, the crowd gives the Republicans about a 77% chance.

Prices change all the time. This is a snapshot of what traders think, not a forecast from us.

5.Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

6.Fine print in plain English

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of the Republicans winning the Vermont governor race in 2026 at about 77%.

It rose 1 point today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

Live price & chartPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, the price history and every real price move here.

See Pro

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by AP + Fox News + NBC race calls

Fine-print risk

Low (25/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not. Calls races on and after election night. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting.

Source named: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: AP + Fox News + NBC race calls

Fine-print risk: Low (25/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Low 25

Who settles it (official source)

Race calls by AP, Fox News, NBC (all must agree); official certification if they do not

Deadline and time zone

Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; the rules text states no explicit date or time) America/New_York

What counts as Yes

Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…s, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called…"

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

No fallback or data-provider hierarchy stated in the rules. Trap: no stated deadline for uncalled races, recounts or court challenges; settlement can wait on certification, and media calls can conflict with official results.

Fine print and other venues

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.