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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov · End date Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting at about 93%.

It is about flat today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s 2:00 PM ET announcement on Oct 28 settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (69%)Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by .gov source: federalreserve.gov
Chance the crowd gives Yes
93% Yes
-0.3 points today · $3.96M traded
Buyers vs sellers near the price
More sellers (69%)
$224.2k from buyers / $509.4k from sellers · gap 0.2¢
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
Announced
  • Price and trading: the crowd gives Yes 93% (-0.3 points today, +0.2 points in the last 15 minutes) on $3.96M traded in 24 hours. Within 5¢ of the price there is $224.2k from buyers and $509.4k from sellers.
  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Oct 28, 2026 (time zone not stated). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellers
Yes price
93.2¢
15 min change (points)
+0.2
Today (points)
-0.3
Traded, 24h
$3.96M
Gap between best prices
0.2¢
-Yes chance
Buyers $224Kgap 0.2¢More sellers (69%)Sellers $509K

Recorded moves

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -0.1 points in 15m (91.5¢ → 91.5¢); last-hour volume 3.0× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.2¢; depth ±5¢ $214.8k bid / $444.4k ask.

    4h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (91.5¢ → 91.5¢); last-hour volume 3.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $370.5k bid / $469.4k ask.

    5h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -1.0 points in 15m (92.5¢ → 91.5¢); last-hour volume 3.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.3¢; depth ±5¢ $348.1k bid / $644.2k ask.

    5h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -0.1 points in 15m (92.5¢ → 92.4¢); last-hour volume 10.0× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.3¢; depth ±5¢ $661.8k bid / $541.4k ask.

    7h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -0.8 points in 15m (93.3¢ → 92.4¢); last-hour volume 10.3× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $714.8k bid / $549.4k ask.

    7h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -0.8 points in 15m (94.3¢ → 93.5¢); last-hour volume 10.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $327.5k bid / $781.5k ask.

    8h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.1 points in 15m (95.0¢ → 95.2¢); last-hour volume 3.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $1732.7k bid / $1264.7k ask.

    11h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (95.0¢ → 95.0¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.1¢; depth ±5¢ $1637.7k bid / $1137.2k ask.

    11h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -0.2 points in 15m (95.5¢ → 95.3¢); last-hour volume 3.1× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 0.2¢; depth ±5¢ $1667.8k bid / $1224.2k ask.

    12h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (94.5¢ → 94.5¢); last-hour volume 4.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $1447.1k bid / $787.7k ask.

    19h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (93.5¢ → 93.5¢); last-hour volume 4.4× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $1442.0k bid / $802.9k ask.

    19h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved -1.0 points in 15m (94.5¢ → 93.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $1375.1k bid / $870.4k ask.

    20h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (94.5¢ → 94.5¢); last-hour volume 5.5× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $1459.9k bid / $889.6k ask.

    22h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +1.0 points in 15m (93.5¢ → 94.5¢); last-hour volume 5.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $1457.9k bid / $880.1k ask.

    22h ago

  • Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release

    Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (93.5¢ → 93.5¢); last-hour volume 4.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $1306.3k bid / $671.2k ask.

    23h ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

.gov source: federalreserve.gov
Fine-print risk: Medium (35/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Medium 35
1.
Who settles it (official source)
Federal Reserve Board / FOMC · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
2.
Deadline and time zone
Wed, Oct 28, 2026 unspecified
3.
What counts as Yes
AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 accordi…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver