Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

.gov source: federalreserve.gov · End date Oct 28, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

Traders put the chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike after the October 2026 meeting at about 7%.

There is no price change on record for today yet, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

Medium surprise risk: the Fed’s 2:00 PM ET announcement on Oct 28 settles it, but the rules do not say which time zone the deadline uses.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

The details

Buyers vs sellers: More sellers (67%)Rule note: the announcement countsSettled by .gov source: federalreserve.gov

Chance the crowd gives Yes

7% Yes

no change data yet · $1.26M traded

Buyers vs sellers near the price

More sellers (67%)

$17.5k from buyers / $35.9k from sellers · gap 1.0¢

Fine-print risk

Medium (35/100)

Announced

Price and trading: the crowd gives Yes 7% (no change data for today yet, +0.0 points in the last 15 minutes) on $1.26M traded in 24 hours. Within 5¢ of the price there is $17.5k from buyers and $35.9k from sellers.
Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Oct 28, 2026 (time zone not stated). Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases.

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellers

Yes price: 6.5¢
15 min change (points): +0.0
Today (points): -
Traded, 24h: $1.26M
Gap between best prices: 1.0¢

Yes 7%No 93%

-Yes chance

Buyers $17Kgap 1.0¢More sellers (67%)Sellers $36K

Recorded moves

Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +1.0 points in 15m (7.5¢ → 8.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $18.5k bid / $35.9k ask.
5h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (7.5¢ → 7.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $27.3k bid / $46.5k ask.
5h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (7.5¢ → 7.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $25.1k bid / $52.2k ask.
6h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (6.5¢ → 6.5¢); last-hour volume 8.9× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $22.9k bid / $52.3k ask.
7h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +1.0 points in 15m (6.5¢ → 7.5¢); last-hour volume 10.1× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $14.3k bid / $14.7k ask.
7h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (5.5¢ → 5.5¢); last-hour volume 3.0× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 2.0¢; depth ±5¢ $16.8k bid / $50.7k ask.
8h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (5.5¢ → 5.5¢); last-hour volume 3.1× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $18.0k bid / $63.5k ask.
8h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +1.0 points in 15m (4.5¢ → 5.5¢); last-hour volume 3.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $19.5k bid / $70.0k ask.
10h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (6.5¢ → 6.5¢); last-hour volume 10.6× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $37.5k bid / $71.5k ask.
23h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (6.5¢ → 6.5¢); last-hour volume 10.7× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $35.0k bid / $69.0k ask.
24h ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (5.5¢ → 5.5¢); last-hour volume 9.5× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $28.4k bid / $64.8k ask.
1d ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (5.5¢ → 5.5¢); last-hour volume 9.9× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $38.2k bid / $90.2k ask.
1d ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (5.5¢ → 5.5¢); last-hour volume 9.2× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $38.2k bid / $90.1k ask.
1d ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (5.5¢ → 5.5¢); last-hour volume 9.1× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $38.1k bid / $92.7k ask.
1d ago
Sub-threshold move · no federalreserve.gov release
Contract moved +0.0 points in 15m (5.5¢ → 5.5¢); last-hour volume 3.5× hourly average; 0 releases found on federalreserve.gov in window; spread 1.0¢; depth ±5¢ $34.3k bid / $80.2k ask.
1d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

.gov source: federalreserve.gov

Fine-print risk: Medium (35/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Medium 35

Who settles it (official source)

Federal Reserve Board / FOMC · https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

Deadline and time zone

Wed, Oct 28, 2026 unspecified

What counts as Yes

AnnouncedAn official announcement is enough; implementation is not required. Rule text: "…25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 accordi…"

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Fine print and other venues

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Kalshi lists contracts on many of the same releases. Compare whether each venue settles on the initial print or a revised figure, the cutoff timezone (Kalshi contract terms are in ET), and what happens if a government shutdown delays the release.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

The short versioniA plain summary built from the live price, the order book and the contract rules, the same for every visitor.

The details

Recorded moves

The short version