Tennis

Sabalenka vs Muchova: who will win?

Settled: Aryna Sabalenka

Result posted: Mon Nov 9, 5:40 PM

Trading stopped on Polymarket: Mon Nov 9, 5:40 PM ET

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US. Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

The short version

Aryna Sabalenka and Karolina Muchova play a tennis match at the WTA Finals, Group B, scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.

Possible results

Aryna SabalenkaAryna Sabalenka wins and moves on.Yes
What has to happen
Aryna Sabalenka advances against Karolina Muchova.
Karolina MuchovaKarolina Muchova wins and moves on.No
What has to happen
Karolina Muchova advances against Aryna Sabalenka.

The one trap

If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or still has no winner by November 23, 2026, the market settles 50-50 and every share pays 50¢.

See all fine print

If a player stops partway through (retires), or is defaulted or disqualified, the player who moves on wins the market.
If a player pulls out before the match starts (a walkover), the market settles 50-50.
The official result comes from the WTA Tour. Trusted news reports can also be used.

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the official resultSettled by WTA official

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on WTA official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on the official final result as played. Cancellations follow the stated fallback. Deadline: Mon, Nov 9, 2026, 3:00 PM ET.

Source named: WTA official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 6 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
12h ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
13h ago
Trading rose to about 8 times the usual hourly amount.
13h ago
Trading rose to about 11 times the usual hourly amount.
14h ago
Trading rose to about 10 times the usual hourly amount.
15h ago
Trading rose to about 6 times the usual hourly amount.
15h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour.”
“If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 23, 2026, 11:59…”
“If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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