Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Named source: gov.il (tiebreak) · End date Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

Traders put the chance of Yashar winning the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election at about 69%.

It dipped 1 point today, and buy orders and sell orders waiting near the price are about even right now.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

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The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by gov.il (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

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Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (gov.il) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with gov.il deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: gov.il (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

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Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: gov.il (tiebreak)

Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Low 5

Who settles it (official source)

Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (gov.il) decides if ambiguous · https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page

Deadline and time zone

Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York

What counts as Yes

Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the…"

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Fine print and other venues

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with gov.il deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.

The short versioniA plain summary built from the live price, the order book and the contract rules, the same for every visitor.

The details

The short version