Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Named source: gov.il · End date Oct 27, 11:59 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

Explain it simply

Built from this market’s own rules and prices. It is research, not a recommendation.

1.What this market is really asking

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market asks: will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

2.Words to know

Share: One unit of a market. A share pays $1 if its result happens and $0 if it doesn’t.
Price in cents (¢): Prices run from 0¢ to 100¢ and work like a percent chance. 94¢ means the crowd gives it about a 94% chance.
Official source: The organization named in the rules whose report decides the result.
Certified result: The final, official vote count approved by election officials. It can come days or weeks after election night.
Settle (resolve): When a market is decided and shares pay out. Venues use “resolve” to mean the same thing.
Credible reporting: When major news outlets agree on a result. Polymarket often uses this before official counts are final.
Polymarket: The prediction market whose prices we show. Its main site is not available to US residents.
ET: Eastern Time, the time zone of New York.
End date: The last day the rules allow for the result. Some markets settle earlier, and some rules allow extra time.

3.Each possible result

YesCrowd’s chance: about 97%
What it would mean: The person named in the question wins the election.
What has to happen: The answer to the question is yes by October 27, 2026.
NoCrowd’s chance: about 3%
What it would mean: What the question describes does not happen.
What has to happen: The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

4.How the payout works

Each Yes share pays $1 if Yes wins and $0 if not. A No share is the other way around.

At 97¢, the crowd gives Yes about a 97% chance.

Prices change all the time. This is a snapshot of what traders think, not a forecast from us.

5.Why the price is where it is

We haven’t found an official source explaining this yet.

6.Fine print in plain English

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit); however, a consensus of trusted news reports may also be used if official results are not available.

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of voter turnout being 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election at about 97%.

It rose 56 points today, and there are more buy orders than sell orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Polymarket prices shown here come from Polymarket’s international site (polymarket.com), which is not available to US residents. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated venue with its own prices. Prediction market access depends on where you live. Follow each venue’s terms and location rules, and do not use a VPN or other tools to get around them.

Live price & chartPro

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: seat / electoral certificationSettled by gov.il

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

Seat / Electoral Certification

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Official election authority (gov.il). Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles on a "Seat / Electoral Certification" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) Deadline: Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date. Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with gov.il deciding if ambiguous.

Source named: gov.il (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: gov.il

Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)

Source
Deadline
Counts as Yes
Backup rules
Other venues

Fine-print risk Low 5

Who settles it (official source)

Official election authority (gov.il) · https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page

Deadline and time zone

Tue, Oct 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (venue end date; settlement waits on race calls, hard deadline Wed, Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET) America/New_York

What counts as Yes

Seat / Electoral CertificationSettles on official seat/vote results as reported and certified; recounts or court challenges can delay settlement past election night. Rule text: "…cket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central E…"

Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)

The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.

Fine print and other venues

Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Polymarket settles on a consensus of credible reporting with gov.il deciding if ambiguous; certified official results can lag media calls by weeks. Venues that settle only on certified results can resolve later, or differently if recounts change the outcome.

Rules text on file (Polymarket)

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Israeli legislative election to the Knesset, defined as the total number of votes cast (סה"כ קולות שהוזנו) divided by the total number of eligible voters (סה"כ בעלי זכות בחירה). (see 2022 example: https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/) If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.