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US Elections

Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?

17% say Vladan Đokić wins

Up 3 points today.

Polymarket lists May 1, 2027 as the end date, but the rules allow until March 31, 2028.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 17¢ means about a 17% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

There is one market for each possible winner (19 in all).

Possible results

  • Radomir SaičićRadomir Saičić wins the election.60%

    What has to happen

    Radomir Saičić wins, under the rules.

  • Vladan ĐokićVladan Đokić wins the election.17%

    What has to happen

    Vladan Đokić wins, under the rules.

  • Ana BrnabićAna Brnabić wins the election.4%

    What has to happen

    Ana Brnabić wins, under the rules.

  • Dejan ŠoškićDejan Šoškić wins the election.4%

    What has to happen

    Dejan Šoškić wins, under the rules.

Show 15 more results
  • Đuro MacutĐuro Macut wins the election.2%

    What has to happen

    Đuro Macut wins, under the rules.

  • Miloš VučevićMiloš Vučević wins the election.2%

    What has to happen

    Miloš Vučević wins, under the rules.

  • Vladan PetrovVladan Petrov wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Vladan Petrov wins, under the rules.

  • Savo ManojlovićSavo Manojlović wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Savo Manojlović wins, under the rules.

  • Aleksandar VučićAleksandar Vučić wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Aleksandar Vučić wins, under the rules.

  • Biljana ĐorđevićBiljana Đorđević wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Biljana Đorđević wins, under the rules.

  • Ivica DačićIvica Dačić wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Ivica Dačić wins, under the rules.

  • Zdravko PonošZdravko Ponoš wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Zdravko Ponoš wins, under the rules.

  • Miloš JovanovićMiloš Jovanović wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Miloš Jovanović wins, under the rules.

  • Vojislav ŠešeljVojislav Šešelj wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Vojislav Šešelj wins, under the rules.

  • Miroslav AleksićMiroslav Aleksić wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Miroslav Aleksić wins, under the rules.

  • Branimir NestorovićBranimir Nestorović wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Branimir Nestorović wins, under the rules.

  • Dragan ĐilasDragan Đilas wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Dragan Đilas wins, under the rules.

  • Srđan MilivojevićSrđan Milivojević wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Srđan Milivojević wins, under the rules.

  • Miloš ParandilovićMiloš Parandilović wins the election.<1%

    What has to happen

    Miloš Parandilović wins, under the rules.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Polymarket goes by what major news outlets agree on. If that is unclear, it uses the official results from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia.

See all fine print
  • Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.
Price chart
-Yes chance

Recorded moves

  • The price fell 3.5 points in about 15 minutes, from 21.5¢ to 18¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.

    Named source: stat.gov.rs (tiebreak)1h ago

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by stat.gov.rs (tiebreak)
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting; Official election authority (stat.gov.rs) decides if ambiguous. Publishes official results after the vote. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, May 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: stat.gov.rs (tiebreak) (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 5 times the usual hourly amount).

    10m ago

  • Trading picked up (about 5 times the usual hourly amount).

    40m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

The next Serbian presidential election is currently expected to be held by May 1, 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next Serbian presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins the next Serbian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Serbian government, specifically the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (https://www.stat.gov.rs/).

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Will Vladan Đokić win the next Serbia presidential election?: explained simply · MarketWeaver