Weather

Will Vance peak at ?

Settled: Yes

Decided by NOAA

Result posted: Sun Nov 1, 3:41 AM

Trading stopped on Polymarket: Sun Nov 1, 3:41 AM ET

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.Yes
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.No
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If Vance has not dissipated by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the advisory data needed to determine its peak intensity has not been published by that time, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.

See all fine print

If the data is still unavailable at the end of that period, or publication has been discontinued, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Vance in any advisory published up to that point.

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by .gov source: nhc.noaa.gov

Fine-print risk

Low (10/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on NOAA National Hurricane Center. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Next official event: NHC advisory, see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“If Vance never reaches Category 1 strength, "Category 1 or weaker" will resolve to "Yes".”
“This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Vance (NHC designation EP222026).”
“If Vance has not dissipated by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the advisory data needed to determine its peak intensity has not…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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