Jobs & Payrolls

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

5% say yes

Down 1 point today.

Decided by BLS Employment Situation news release, by March 31, 2027.

Polymarket lists January 31, 2027 as the end date, but the rules allow until March 31, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 5¢ means about a 5% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

This market is decided by jobs report (Employment Situation).

Possible results

YesThe official number comes out the way the question describes.5%
What has to happen
Any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage.
NoIt doesn’t happen.95%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by January 31, 2027.

The one trap

If a federal appropriations lapse delays the BLS Employment Situation release, settlement waits for the official BLS release up to the contract fallback cutoff (March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET on Polymarket annual U-3 contracts).

Price chart

Yes 5%No 95%

-Yes chance

View on Polymarket

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by .gov source: bls.gov

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the first published number

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Bureau of Labor Statistics. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Released at 8:30 AM ET on the first Friday of the month per the BLS schedule.

Next official event: Jobs report (Employment Situation), see the official schedule

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

Polymarket (BLS Employment Situation / US Unemployment in 2026, slug will-us-unemployment-reach-at-least-5pt0-in-2026): Resolves on the Monthly Employment Situation Report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm. Unemployment threshold markets use the seasonally adjusted U-3 rate in Table A-15 reported to one decimal place ("greater than or equal to" the listed percentage). Monthly payroll markets use the first-reported seasonally adjusted change in total nonfarm payroll employment (Establishment Survey, Table B-1), excluding subsequent monthly or annual benchmark revisions.

Kalshi

Kalshi (KXU3 and KXPAYROLLS CFTC-certified contracts): Source Agency is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Settles on the initial published Employment Situation release for the reference month (seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate or headline total nonfarm payroll change in thousands). Strikes are strict inequalities ("above X") unless otherwise specified on the strike ticket, and later two-month revisions or annual benchmark revisions do not alter settlement.

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