GDP & Tariffs

Will US growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?

>99% say yes

Up 43 points today.

Decided by bea.gov, by October 29, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so a price over 99¢ means more than a 99% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

This market is decided by the official report.

Possible results

YesThe official number comes out the way the question describes.>99%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by October 29, 2026.
NoIt doesn’t happen.<1%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

See all fine print

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA.

Price chart

Yes >99%No <1%

-Yes chance

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The details

Rule note: first number counts, no revisionsSettled by bea.gov

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the first published number

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: bea.gov. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Thu, Oct 29, 2026 (time zone not stated).

Source named: bea.gov (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 1 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 4 times the usual hourly amount).
9m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

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