US Elections

Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?

39% say yes

No price change recorded today yet.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 39¢ means about a 39% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026), the answer is No. Yes wins if: Donald Trump meets with Flávio Bolsonaro between October 27, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.39%
What has to happen
Donald Trump meets with Flávio Bolsonaro between October 27, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.61%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 39%No 61%

-Yes chance

Recorded moves

The price rose 6.0 points in about 15 minutes, from 34.5¢ to 40.5¢. This market has no official data feed that we track.
Source: Credible-reporting consensus2h ago

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading picked up (about 3 times the usual hourly amount).
46m ago
Trading picked up (about 3 times the usual hourly amount).
1h ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Flávio Bolsonaro between October 27, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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