US Elections

Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

86% say yes

Up 3 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 86¢ means about an 86% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.86%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.14%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

the market settles as "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

Price chart

Yes 86%No 14%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Low (15/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026…”
“This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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