Tech

Will there be no next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) release by November 30, 2026?

91% say yes

Up 42 points today.

Decided by major news reports, by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 91¢ means about a 91% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.91%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.9%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart

Yes 91%No 9%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: first number counts, no revisionsNo single official source

Fine-print risk

Medium (30/100)

settles on the first published number

Official source: settlement runs on Consensus of credible reporting (no single named data provider). Has no single feed: settlement relies on consensus reporting. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: Settles strictly on the initial agency release. Later benchmark revisions will not flip the outcome. Deadline: Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: Consensus of credible reporting (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public.”
“The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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