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Fed & Rates

Will leave interest rates the same on Mar 17?

42% say no change

Up 7 points today.

Decided by the Fed’s statement after its meeting (by March 17, 2027).

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 42¢ means about a 42% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

After its March 2027 meeting, the Federal Reserve announces whether it will change the interest . It is one of 5 related markets, one for each possible decision.

Possible results

  • Any raiseBorrowing tends to cost more, and savings tend to pay a bit more.51%

    What has to happen

    Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps) (49%): The Fed’s statement raises the top of its target range by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points).

    Raise by 0.5 points (50 bps) or more (2%): The Fed’s statement raises the top of its target range by 0.5 percentage points (50 basis points) or more.

  • No changeRates stay the same, so loan and savings rates tend to stay put.42%

    What has to happen

    The Fed’s statement keeps the top of its target range the same as before the meeting.

  • Any cutBorrowing tends to cost less, and savings tend to pay a bit less.8%

    What has to happen

    Lower by 0.25 points (25 bps) (6%): The Fed’s statement lowers the top of its target range by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points).

    Lower by 0.5 points (50 bps) or more (2%): The Fed’s statement lowers the top of its target range by 0.5 percentage points (50 basis points) or more.

Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.

The one trap

Polymarket rounds odd-sized changes up. If the Fed cut by 0.125%, Polymarket would count it as a 0.25% cut, but Kalshi might not.

See all fine print
  • If the Fed releases no statement by the end of its next scheduled meeting, Polymarket counts it as “No change”.
Price chart
-Yes chance

View on PolymarketView on Kalshi

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsOfficial source: recent release
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
settles on the official announcement

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release on this topic: "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement" (1d ago).
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Wed, Mar 17, 2027 (time zone not stated).

Recent official releases on this topic (FED)

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Dec 9, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 16-17, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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