Fed & Rates
Will leave interest rates the same on Jan 27?
67% say no change
Up 2 points today.
Decided by the Fed’s statement after its meeting (by January 27, 2027).
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 67¢ means about a 67% chance.
Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
After its January 2027 meeting, the Federal Reserve announces whether it will change the interest . It is one of 5 related markets, one for each possible decision.
Possible results
No changeRates stay the same, so loan and savings rates tend to stay put.67%
What has to happen
The Fed’s statement keeps the top of its target range the same as before the meeting.
Any raiseBorrowing tends to cost more, and savings tend to pay a bit more.32%
What has to happen
Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps) (31%): The Fed’s statement raises the top of its target range by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points).
Raise by 0.5 points (50 bps) or more (1%): The Fed’s statement raises the top of its target range by 0.5 percentage points (50 basis points) or more.
Any cutBorrowing tends to cost less, and savings tend to pay a bit less.2%
What has to happen
Lower by 0.25 points (25 bps) (1%): The Fed’s statement lowers the top of its target range by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points).
Lower by 0.5 points (50 bps) or more (<1%): The Fed’s statement lowers the top of its target range by 0.5 percentage points (50 basis points) or more.
Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.
What the news says
Most sources say the Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent during its October 2026 meeting.
Sources checked 1:38 AM ET
See sources (3)
- Federal Reserve · Oct 28, 2026
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement - Federal Reserve · Oct 7, 2026
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15-16, 2026 - Federal Reserve · Sep 16, 2026
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting
News data from GDELT. Summary written by AI from the sources listed, then checked against them.
The one trap
Polymarket rounds odd-sized changes up. If the Fed cut by 0.125%, Polymarket would count it as a 0.25% cut, but Kalshi might not.
See all fine print
- If the Fed releases no statement by the end of its next scheduled meeting, Polymarket counts it as “No change”.