Fed & Rates
Will leave interest rates the same on Apr 28?
62% say no change
Down 4 points today.
Decided by the Fed’s statement after its meeting (by April 28, 2027).
Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 62¢ means about a 62% chance.
Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.
The short version
After its April 2027 meeting, the Federal Reserve announces whether it will change the interest . It is one of 5 related markets, one for each possible decision.
Possible results
No changeRates stay the same, so loan and savings rates tend to stay put.62%
What has to happen
The Fed’s statement keeps the top of its target range the same as before the meeting.
Any raiseBorrowing tends to cost more, and savings tend to pay a bit more.26%
What has to happen
Raise by 0.25 points (25 bps) (25%): The Fed’s statement raises the top of its target range by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points).
Raise by 0.5 points (50 bps) or more (2%): The Fed’s statement raises the top of its target range by 0.5 percentage points (50 basis points) or more.
Any cutBorrowing tends to cost less, and savings tend to pay a bit less.13%
What has to happen
Lower by 0.25 points (25 bps) (9%): The Fed’s statement lowers the top of its target range by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points).
Lower by 0.5 points (50 bps) or more (5%): The Fed’s statement lowers the top of its target range by 0.5 percentage points (50 basis points) or more.
Each result is its own market, so the chances may not add up to exactly 100%.
What the news says
News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: Federal Reserve Board / FOMC.
The one trap
Polymarket rounds odd-sized changes up. If the Fed cut by 0.125%, Polymarket would count it as a 0.25% cut, but Kalshi might not.
See all fine print
- If the Fed releases no statement by the end of its next scheduled meeting, Polymarket counts it as “No change”.
Price chart
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