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Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

66% say yes

Down 9 points today.

Decided by portwatch.imf.org, by October 31, 2026.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 66¢ means about a 66% chance.

Research, not advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.66%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by October 31, 2026.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.34%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

See all fine print
  • In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by portwatch.imf.org
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
settles on the condition as written

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on Named URL in rules: portwatch.imf.org. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sat, Oct 31, 2026.

Source named: portwatch.imf.org (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

  • Trading picked up (about 3 times the usual hourly amount).

    52s ago

  • Trading picked up (about 3 times the usual hourly amount).

    31m ago

Full rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

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