US Elections

Will there be between 125m and 130m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

5% say yes

Up 3 points today.

Decided by history.house.gov, by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Results can take until June 30, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 5¢ means about a 5% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

YesWhat the question describes actually happens.5%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is yes by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NoIt doesn’t happen.95%
What has to happen
The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

What the news says

News search is temporarily unavailable. Check the official source: history.house.gov.

The one trap

Official certified results can come weeks after news outlets call the race, so other venues may settle later or differently.

See all fine print

If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles as "Other".

Price chart

Yes 5%No 95%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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The details

Rule note: the condition as writtenSettled by history.house.gov

Fine-print risk

Low (0/100)

settles on the condition as written

Official source: settlement runs on history.house.gov (history.house.gov). No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the condition as written, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: history.house.gov (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Show 2 smaller price or trading-volume entries

Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
8h ago
Trading rose to about 3 times the usual hourly amount.
9h ago

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.”
“If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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