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Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?

99% say yes

Up 64 points today.

Decided by official U.S. government information, by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 99¢ means about a 99% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) enters the U.S.

Possible results

YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.99%
What has to happen
The USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) enters the U.S.
NoThe deadline passes without it happening.1%
What has to happen
That doesn’t happen by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by that time, the market settles as “No.” Port calls, exercises, or other operations outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility, including in the U.S.

Price chart

Yes 99%No 1%

-Yes chance

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the event happening and being officially reportedSettled by U.S. government statements

Fine-print risk

Low (5/100)

settles on the event happening and being officially reported

Official source: settlement runs on Official U.S. government information (President, Defense/State Departments, CENTCOM or official representatives). Updates when an official statement is issued. No recorded moves for this market yet.
Fine print: It settles on the event happening and being officially reported, with a deadline in New York time (ET). Deadline: Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Source named: U.S. government statements (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)

“This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) enters the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date…”
“The arrival must occur by the listed deadline.”
“Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.””

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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