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Congress & Courts

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

1% say yes

About the same as yesterday.

Decided by Federal Register / Congress.gov, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM .

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 1¢ means about a 1% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

The short version

If that hasn’t happened by the deadline (December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), the answer is No. Yes wins if: The United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Possible results

  • YesThe event in the question happens before the deadline.1%

    What has to happen

    The United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

  • NoThe deadline passes without it happening.99%

    What has to happen

    That doesn’t happen by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The one trap

The rules don’t list special cases like delays or cancellations. The venue’s own rules decide anything unusual.

Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: needs confirmed reportsOfficial source: recent release
Fine-print risk
Medium (30/100)
settles on the condition as written
  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Register / Congress.gov. Latest FEDREG release on this topic: "Publication of Iran-Related Web General License W" (2d ago).
  • Fine print: A single outlet’s breaking report does not settle Yes; it needs several sources agreeing or official confirmation. Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Recent official releases on this topic (FEDREG)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the…”
  • “The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.”
  • “Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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