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Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?

Named source: MLB official · End date Oct 31, 7:55 PM ET · View rules on Polymarket (international site) ↗

The short version

How to read this page

Traders put the chance of the Tampa Bay Rays winning the 2026 World Series at about 18%.

It rose 2 points today, and there are more sell orders than buy orders waiting near the price right now.

Low surprise risk: the condition as written settles it.

Describes the price, the order book and the contract rules. It is research, not a recommendation.

Sports event contracts are restricted or under legal challenge in several US states. Check your state’s law and the venue’s terms.

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The details

Rule note: observed eventSettled by MLB official
Fine-print risk
Low (5/100)
Observed Event

Pro adds the exact price, today’s change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price chart and every recorded move. See Pro

  • Official source: settlement runs on MLB official results; credible reporting as a last resort. Posts the final result after the game. No recorded moves for this market yet.
  • Fine print: Settles on a "Observed Event" trigger with an ET cutoff. Cutoff: Thu, Dec 31, 2026 Deadline: Thu, Dec 31, 2026. Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (see rules) and cancellation handling (per the rules vs. void/refund on sportsbooks and Kalshi's own contract terms).

Source named: MLB official (not a tracked official feed, no release history)

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Live price, chart & buyers vs sellersPro

Pro shows the exact price, the change in points, buyers vs sellers in dollars, the price history and every recorded move here.

See Pro

Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?

5-point rule check

Polymarket

Named source: MLB official
Fine-print risk: Low (5/100)
  1. Source
  2. Deadline
  3. Counts as Yes
  4. Backup rules
  5. Other venues
Fine-print risk Low 5
1.
Who settles it (official source)
MLB official results; credible reporting as a last resort · https://www.mlb.com/
2.
Deadline and time zone
Thu, Dec 31, 2026 America/New_York
3.
What counts as Yes
Observed EventSettles when the described event is observed and reported by the named source. Rule text: "This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impos…"
4.
Backup rules (delays, cancellations, revisions)
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
5.
Fine print and other venues
Cross-venue & fine-print settlement trap: Check regulation vs. overtime inclusion, the postponement rule (see rules) and cancellation handling (per the rules vs. void/refund on sportsbooks and Kalshi's own contract terms).
Rules text on file (Polymarket)

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?: resolution rules & settlement traps · MarketWeaver