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Fed & Rates

Will the South African Reserve Bank increase the repo rate by 50+ at the March meeting?

13% say yes

Down 19 points today.

Decided by Board / , by March 18, 2027.

Each share pays $1 if it happens, so 13¢ means about a 13% chance.

Research, not financial advice. Prices from Polymarket’s international site, not available in the US.

Possible results

  • YesWhat the question describes actually happens.13%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is yes by March 18, 2027.

  • NoIt doesn’t happen.87%

    What has to happen

    The answer to the question is no, under the rules.

The one trap

If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.

See all fine print
  • If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, the market settles as the “No Change” bracket.
Price chart
-Yes chance

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View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

Show details for experienced traders

The details

Rule note: the announcement countsOfficial source: recent release
Fine-print risk
Medium (35/100)
settles on the official announcement
  • Official source: settlement runs on Federal Reserve Board / FOMC. Latest FED release on this topic: "Federal Reserve announces revised tentative schedule of Federal Open Market Committee meetings in 2027" (3d ago).
  • Fine print: A qualifying official announcement settles Yes; implementation is not required. Deadline: Thu, Mar 18, 2027, 7:59 PM ET.

Recent official releases on this topic (FED)

Next official event: FOMC statement, Wed Mar 18, 2:00 PM ET

Standardized read of public order book, official-source and contract-rule data, identical for every viewer. It describes the data and is not a recommendation. The venue’s published rules control settlement.

Key lines from the rules (Polymarket)
  • “This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the March 2027 meeting of the South African…”
  • “If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on…”

View rules on Polymarket (international site, not available to US residents)

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